BTC Max Pain $102k

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Bitcoin (BTC) Trading in Tight Range Ahead of Options Expiry

The top cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), is currently trading in a tight range, with its price at $107,500, down 0.2% in the past 24 hours. The CoinDesk 20 index, which tracks the top 20 coins by market capitalization, excluding stablecoins and exchange coins, has lost 0.9% in the same period.

Market Expectations and Volatility

The $105,000 level is seen as pivotal for Bitcoin (BTC), with technicals suggesting caution if support fails. Meanwhile, the implied volatility of Bitcoin (BTC), measured by Deribit DVOL, has dropped to 38% from 50% in April, signaling increased confidence in the cryptocurrency’s macro-hedge role. The put-call skews show no clear directional positioning for traders in the short-term.

Options Expiry and Market Impact

This Friday marks one of the largest option expiries of the year on Deribit, with $40 billion in open interest, and 38% of these contracts set to expire. The "max pain price" for Friday is at $102,000, with a put/call ratio of 0.73. The low open interest in perps and fairly depressed Bitcoin (BTC) implied volatility and skew are indicative of limited expectations for sharp price movements going into Friday’s expiry.

Crypto Stocks and Market Performance

A number of crypto stocks are managing gains, with Core Scientific surging more than 33% after a Wall Street Journal report suggested it may be acquired by AI Hyperscaler CoreWeave. Other notable gainers include:

  • Circle: up 5-7%
  • Coinbase: up 5-7%
  • Riot Platforms: up 5-7%
  • Hut 8: up 5-7%
    In contrast, Strategy was lower by nearly 1%.

Broader Market Implications

The upcoming options expiry and the current trading range of Bitcoin (BTC) have significant implications for the broader market. As blockchain technology continues to evolve, the increasing confidence in Bitcoin (BTC)‘s macro-hedge role may attract more institutional investors, potentially leading to increased adoption and price stability. However, the low open interest in perps and depressed implied volatility may also indicate a lack of enthusiasm among retail investors, who are waiting for clearer market signals before making their next move. As the market navigates this critical juncture, it remains to be seen how the expiry will impact the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market.

Markets,Bitcoin,options expiry,Market Wrap,News
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image source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/06/26/btc-holds-above-107k-ahead-of-fridays-big-options-expiry-with-102k-max-pain-price